Executive Summary

Brødrene A & O Johansen A/S (AOJ) is a century-old, family-controlled Danish wholesaler of technical installation materials. The company holds a strong market position in its home market of Denmark, which is supplemented by a growing presence in Sweden and Norway. The investment case hinges on the company’s ability to leverage its digital leadership and scale to navigate a challenging macroeconomic environment while executing a disciplined expansion strategy.

AOJ’s strategy is built on three pillars: digitalization, acquisitive geographic expansion, and growing its direct-to-consumer (B2C) channel. This strategy aims to build a resilient, omnichannel business model that is less dependent on the cyclicality of new construction by focusing on the more stable renovation, maintenance, and improvement (RMI) market. A key innovation exemplifying this strategy is the AO365 concept, which provides professional customers with 24/7 unmanned access to physical stores.

The company experienced robust growth and record profitability in the post-pandemic period of 2021-2022 but has since faced significant margin pressure due to intense price competition and a slowdown in key markets, particularly for heat pumps. Despite a revenue decline in 2023 and modest growth in 2024, the company has maintained profitability and a strong commitment to shareholder returns via dividends. Performance in the first half of 2025 shows a strong rebound in revenue growth, driven by both organic gains and recent acquisitions, though margin pressure persists.

The primary opportunities for AOJ lie in gaining market share through its superior digital and logistical platform, successfully integrating recent acquisitions in Sweden and Norway to build a significant Nordic footprint, and capturing long-term tailwinds from the green energy transition and infrastructure modernization.

The most significant risks include a prolonged weakness in the Nordic construction market, sustained and intense price-based competition further eroding margins, execution risk associated with integrating multiple new acquisitions, and increased customer credit risk in a volatile economic climate.

AOJ currently trades at valuation multiples that are below its historical averages and appear to reflect the recent cyclical downturn in earnings. The key question for investors is whether the current valuation adequately discounts the near-term headwinds or underestimates the long-term value creation potential of its strategic initiatives.

Company Overview & Business Model

Core Business Operations

Founded in 1914, Brødrene A & O Johansen A/S is a well-established wholesaler specializing in the sale and distribution of technical installation materials and tools for the construction industry.¹ The company’s core function is to act as a critical intermediary, managing complex supply chains between a wide array of manufacturers and a fragmented customer base of professional tradespeople and, increasingly, private consumers.³

AOJ’s product portfolio is comprehensive, covering a broad spectrum of technical needs. Key product categories include plumbing, heating systems, sanitary ware, electrical equipment and lighting, water supply and drainage (VA) components, ventilation systems, and a wide assortment of tools and workwear.¹ The sheer scale of its offering is a defining characteristic; the company manages a vast and dynamic catalog of approximately 800,000 active Stock Keeping Units (SKUs), with 2,000 to 3,000 new SKUs being added each month. This highlights the operational complexity and importance of sophisticated product information management to the business model.⁹

Business Model and Value Proposition

AOJ’s business model is centered on an omnichannel strategy that seamlessly integrates a dense physical footprint with a robust digital platform. The company’s value proposition to its customers is built on three core tenets: comprehensive product availability, logistical excellence, and superior customer convenience.¹⁰

A key element of this strategy and a significant competitive differentiator is the company’s leadership in digitalization. This is most evident in its innovative AO365 concept, a service that provides professional B2B customers with 24/7, unmanned access to its physical stores using a mobile application.³ This service directly addresses the needs of tradespeople who often work outside of standard business hours, providing them with unparalleled flexibility and convenience.

The combination of a widespread network of physical stores, which serve as showrooms, service points, and local distribution hubs, with a sophisticated e-commerce platform creates an integrated “one-stop-shop” experience for customers. This allows them to research and order products online for delivery or utilize click-and-collect services, blending the efficiency of digital commerce with the immediacy of a physical presence.¹⁰

Key Business Segments

The company reports its operations across two primary customer-facing segments: Professional (B2B) and Private (B2C).⁷

1. Professional (B2B): This is the company’s traditional and largest segment, serving professional customers such as plumbers, electricians, building contractors, and municipalities.⁴ Historically, this segment has been the primary engine of the business, accounting for approximately 85% of total sales in 2021.¹¹ More recent trailing-twelve-month data indicates a similar composition, with B2B sales of DKK 4.86 billion compared to B2C sales of DKK 1.00 billion.¹² The B2B segment is characterized by long-term customer relationships and a focus on service, reliability, and logistics.
2. Private (B2C): The B2C segment targets do-it-yourself (DIY) customers and private consumers through a portfolio of dedicated e-commerce websites.⁶ While this segment is smaller and operates at lower profit margins than the B2B business, it represents a key strategic growth area for the company.¹³ Management has set a target for B2C sales to account for over 15% of total group revenue by 2025, a goal supported by its portfolio of 20 dedicated webshops.¹⁰ The segment has demonstrated strong recent momentum, posting positive growth rates for seven consecutive quarters as of the second quarter of 2025, indicating successful traction with consumers.¹⁴

The expansion into the B2C market allows AOJ to more effectively utilize its substantial existing infrastructure. The company’s core assets—its vast product catalog, centralized warehouse, and sophisticated digital platforms like its Product Information Management (PIM) system—carry high fixed costs. By serving the B2C market, AOJ can increase inventory turnover and spread these fixed costs over a larger revenue base, thereby improving overall capital efficiency. The acquisitions of established online B2C retailers such as VVSKupp.no are not merely revenue purchases; they bring valuable digital marketing expertise and customer data that can be leveraged across the entire organization.⁴

Geographic Footprint and Market Presence

AOJ’s operations are predominantly concentrated in Denmark, its home market, which contributed approximately 90% of total revenue in 2021.¹¹ The company maintains a strong physical presence across the country, with a network of 49 branches reported in 2022, supported by a large central warehouse in Albertslund.¹

Beyond Denmark, the company is actively expanding its Nordic footprint. It has established operations in Sweden (6 branches), Norway, and a smaller presence in Estonia (1 branch).¹ A series of strategic acquisitions executed in 2024 significantly bolstered this international presence, particularly in Sweden through the purchase of Svenska VA-Grossisten and in Norway with the acquisition of the online store VVSKupp.no.¹ These moves signal a clear strategic intent to evolve from a Danish-centric leader into a more significant pan-Nordic distributor.

The AO365 concept is a prime example of how the company transforms its physical assets into a durable competitive advantage. In an era where physical retail can be seen as a liability, AOJ has layered a digital service on top of its store network that fundamentally increases its value to the core professional customer. This creates high switching costs, as a professional who relies on the ability to access materials at any hour is unlikely to move to a competitor with standard operating hours. This fusion of physical and digital channels turns the store network from a potential cost center into a powerful, defensible moat.

Industry Analysis & Market Dynamics

Market Size and Growth Trends

Brødrene A & O Johansen operates within the broader Scandinavian construction market, a mature and substantial economic sector. In 2024-2025, the total market size for construction in the region was estimated to be between USD 130 billion and USD 135 billion.¹⁷ Projections for the market indicate modest growth, with various forecasts suggesting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the range of 1.5% to 4.2% through 2030-2034.¹⁷ This points to a mature industry where growth is steady but not explosive.

Specifically for AOJ’s core market, the Danish construction sector was valued at USD 46.19 billion in 2024, with a slightly more optimistic projected CAGR of 4.8% through 2030.¹⁹ A critical feature of AOJ’s business is its significant exposure to the renovation, maintenance, and improvement (RMI) market. Approximately 70% of the company’s sales are derived from these maintenance-related activities, with the remaining 30% linked to new construction projects.¹⁰ This business mix provides a degree of resilience, as RMI spending tends to be less cyclical and more necessity-driven than new-build activity.

Key Industry Drivers and Structural Changes

Several powerful, long-term trends are reshaping the Nordic construction and building materials distribution industry.

• The Green Transition: This is arguably the most significant structural driver. Ambitious climate goals, including Denmark’s target for carbon neutrality by 2045 and the broader EU Green Deal, are mandating a fundamental shift in construction practices.¹⁹ This is fueling substantial public and private investment into green infrastructure, energy-efficient building renovations, and the adoption of renewable energy technologies such as heat pumps and solar power. This creates a sustained, long-term demand for the specialized technical materials that AOJ distributes.
• Digitalization and E-commerce: The construction supply chain is undergoing a digital transformation. The adoption of technologies like Building Information Modeling (BIM) by contractors is improving project planning and material procurement.¹⁹ Concurrently, the purchasing behavior of tradespeople is shifting online. Wholesalers that have invested heavily in sophisticated e-commerce platforms and digital tools, as AOJ has, are positioned to capture this shift and gain a competitive advantage through efficiency and an enhanced customer experience.¹¹
• Prefabrication and Modular Construction: To combat persistent skilled labor shortages and improve on-site efficiency, the industry is increasingly turning to prefabricated and modular construction methods.¹⁸ This structural change may alter the demand profile for building materials, shifting it from individual components to more integrated, factory-assembled systems. This requires distributors to adapt their product assortments and logistical capabilities to serve this growing segment.
• Electrification: Across the Nordic region, particularly in Sweden, a major push to electrify transportation and industrial processes is underway.²⁰ This will necessitate significant investment in upgrading and expanding the electrical grid, driving long-term demand for a wide range of electrical components and supplies.

Competitive Dynamics and Barriers to Entry

The Danish wholesale market for technical installation materials is highly consolidated and characterized by intense competition.¹¹ The market is dominated by a few large, established players, including AOJ, that benefit from strong brand recognition and deep-rooted customer loyalty. This creates formidable barriers to entry for new competitors.¹¹

Competition among the major incumbents is described in company reports as “fierce,” particularly within the project sales market where decisions are often highly price-sensitive. This dynamic exerts continuous downward pressure on gross margins across the industry.¹⁴

The primary barriers to entry are scale and infrastructure. A new entrant would face the daunting task of replicating the vast product catalog, extensive physical store network, and sophisticated logistical and IT infrastructure of an established player like AOJ. The capital investment and time required to build such a platform from scratch are prohibitive, protecting the market position of the incumbents.¹¹

Regulatory Environment

The regulatory landscape is a key catalyst for activity in AOJ’s end markets. Stringent environmental regulations, such as Denmark’s forthcoming carbon limits on new buildings, are a powerful driver for the RMI market, as they compel property owners to invest in energy-efficient upgrades to the existing building stock.¹⁸ Furthermore, government policies and subsidy programs, such as grants for the installation of heat pumps, can directly and significantly influence demand for specific product categories.²⁴ However, the experience in 2023, where an “unexpected” downturn in the heat pump market followed changes in a subsidy program, demonstrates that this policy-driven demand can be volatile and subject to abrupt shifts.²³

The green transition represents a significant long-term opportunity, but its path is not linear. It creates both structural tailwinds and short-term volatility. While regulations will undoubtedly force a shift towards greener products, creating a baseline of demand, the timing and intensity of this demand are often tied to fluctuating government policies and subsidies. This introduces a level of unpredictability, as seen with the heat pump market in 2023. Moreover, as these green technologies become standardized, they attract intense competition, which can commoditize the products and compress margins. Therefore, while the green transition secures AOJ’s long-term market relevance, it also requires nimble inventory management and a sophisticated pricing strategy to navigate the associated volatility and competitive pressures.

Simultaneously, the industry’s acute shortage of skilled labor acts as an indirect tailwind for AOJ’s specific business model.¹⁸ For time-constrained professional tradespeople, efficiency and productivity are paramount. They cannot afford to waste valuable time sourcing materials from multiple suppliers or dealing with stockouts. AOJ’s value proposition—a comprehensive product range, high in-stock availability, efficient logistics, and the unmatched convenience of 24/7 store access via AO365—directly addresses this critical pain point. In this context, AOJ is selling more than just physical goods; it is selling time savings and operational efficiency to its core B2B customers. This strengthens customer loyalty and provides a crucial defense against competitors who compete solely on price.

Competitive Position & Market Share

Market Share and Positioning

Brødrene A & O Johansen holds a formidable position within its core Danish market. The company is a recognized market leader in several key product categories. Based on 2022 estimates, AOJ commands an approximate 25.0% market share in sanitary ware products and a 15.0% share in technical installation components within the professional B2B segment.¹¹

Crucially, the company has demonstrated an ability to defend and grow its position even in adverse market conditions. Throughout the recent industry downturn in 2023 and 2024, management has consistently reported that AOJ has continued to gain market share in the Danish B2B segment.¹⁴ This resilience suggests a strong and defensible competitive offering that resonates with customers beyond just price, likely due to its superior service levels and digital tools.

Key Competitors and Comparative Analysis

The Nordic building materials distribution landscape is populated by several large and sophisticated competitors.

• Solar Group A/S (SOLAR B): As another Danish-listed wholesaler, Solar Group is one of AOJ’s closest and most relevant peers. However, the two companies exhibit distinct strategic profiles. Solar is more narrowly focused on electrical equipment and possesses a more extensive international footprint, with major operations in the Netherlands and Poland in addition to its Nordic base.¹³ Its customer base is also more diversified, with significant sales to industrial clients and a dedicated trade segment.¹³ From a financial perspective, analysis suggests Solar is more capital-efficient, historically generating a higher return on invested capital despite having lower operating margins. Conversely, AOJ has demonstrated a more consistent long-term track record of profitability, with fewer loss-making years.¹³
• STARK Group: STARK Group is a dominant force in the European market and the largest distributor of building materials in Denmark.²⁷ Its product focus is broader than AOJ’s, encompassing heavy building materials like timber and cement, and it serves both professional contractors and the DIY market.²⁷ As a significantly larger, privately-owned entity with reported revenues of EUR 7.8 billion in its 2023/24 financial year, STARK possesses immense scale advantages in purchasing and logistics that make it a formidable competitor.²⁸
• Other Competitors: The market also includes other major distribution chains such as the Swedish-based Ahlsell and local players like Beijer Byggmaterial and Bygma, which contribute to a highly competitive environment.²⁹ While the market is fragmented at the tail end, it is the competition among these large-scale players that primarily defines the industry’s pricing and service dynamics.

An analysis of AOJ and its primary peer, Solar Group, reveals two distinct strategic approaches to the Nordic wholesale market. AOJ is pursuing a strategy of focused depth. Its model is to dominate the Danish RMI-focused market with a superior, digitally-enabled service offering, and then systematically replicate this successful playbook in adjacent Nordic countries through targeted, bolt-on acquisitions.¹⁰ In contrast, Solar Group’s strategy is one of

diversified breadth, operating across a wider range of geographies (including non-Nordic markets) and serving more varied customer segments like heavy industry.¹³ An investment in AOJ is therefore a thesis on the superiority of its specialized operating model and its ability to execute a disciplined roll-up strategy. An investment in Solar is a bet on a more complex, diversified business model and its potential to find growth across multiple end-markets.

Competitive Advantages (Economic Moat)

AOJ’s market leadership is underpinned by several durable competitive advantages that create a protective economic moat.

• Scale and Network Density: The company’s extensive network of physical stores, combined with its large-scale central warehouse, generates significant economies of scale. This allows for bulk purchasing from suppliers, leading to favorable pricing, and creates a highly efficient logistics network that is difficult and costly for smaller competitors to replicate.¹¹
• Digital Leadership: AOJ’s early and sustained investment in technology is a core component of its moat. The development of a sophisticated e-commerce platform and, most notably, the innovative AO365 app, creates a superior customer experience that fosters loyalty and increases switching costs.¹¹
• Pricing Power: As a major distributor, AOJ has historically demonstrated the ability to pass through input cost inflation from its suppliers to its customers. This was evident in 2021 when the company successfully implemented price increases of 2.0-6.0% to offset inflation, thereby protecting its gross margins.¹¹ While recent market dynamics have tested this power, it remains a key structural advantage over the long term.
• Customer Relationships: The company has cultivated deep, long-standing relationships with its professional customer base. The significant average purchase amount per B2B customer indicates that AOJ is deeply integrated into their procurement workflows, making them a trusted and essential partner rather than just a supplier.¹¹

Competitive Threats

The primary competitive threat facing AOJ is the sustained, intense price-based competition from other large-scale distributors. This dynamic has been the main cause of the margin compression experienced in 2023 and 2024 and remains the most significant near-term challenge.¹⁴ A secondary, though less immediate, threat is the potential for disintermediation, where manufacturers could attempt to sell directly to large customers or through online marketplaces. However, the logistical complexity, vast product range, and service requirements of the industry make this a difficult model to execute successfully, limiting the current threat.

Financial Performance & Growth History

An analysis of Brødrene A & O Johansen’s financial performance over the last five years reveals a distinct cycle of rapid expansion followed by a period of market-driven normalization and margin compression. The company’s results reflect both the broader macroeconomic trends in the construction sector and the specific strategic actions taken by management.

Metric (DKKm)	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Net Revenue	4,098.3	4,801.0	5,375.0	5,261.0	5,429.3
Revenue Growth (%)	14.4%	17.1%	12.0%	-2.1%	3.2%
Gross Profit	914.4	1,116.7	1,310.3	1,234.3	1,266.3
Gross Margin (%)	22.3%	23.3%	24.4%	23.5%	23.3%
EBITDA	328.2	417.2	491.6	405.3	366.0
EBITDA Margin (%)	8.0%	8.7%	9.1%	7.7%	6.7%
EBT	220.8	316.7¹	377.4	261.8	210.1
EBT Margin (%)	5.4%	6.6%¹	7.0%	5.0%	3.9%

Sources: ¹¹

¹ Note: 2021 figure represents EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Tax), not EBT.

Revenue Growth Patterns

The period from 2020 to 2022 was characterized by exceptional top-line growth. Revenue expanded at a double-digit pace, driven by a confluence of factors including a buoyant post-pandemic RMI market, strong demand for new construction, and the pass-through of significant price inflation. This growth phase culminated in record revenue of DKK 5.38 billion in 2022.²⁴

The trend reversed in 2023, with revenue contracting by 2.1% as the market cooled in response to rising interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainty.²⁴ The company returned to modest growth of 3.2% in 2024; however, this was driven entirely by acquisitions. Organic revenue development for 2024 was -1.0%, though there was an improvement in the second half of the year with 3.0% organic growth.³² The first half of 2025 has shown a strong rebound, with reported revenue growth of 16.8%, reflecting both continued organic momentum and the full impact of 2024 acquisitions.¹⁴

Profitability Trends and Margin Evolution

Profitability followed a similar trajectory to revenue, with margins peaking in 2022. The gross margin expanded from 22.3% in 2020 to a high of 24.4% in 2022, reflecting strong demand and successful price management.²⁴ The EBITDA margin also reached a peak of 9.1% in 2022.²⁴

Since this peak, the company has experienced significant margin compression. The EBITDA margin contracted by 240 basis points, falling from 9.1% in 2022 to 6.7% in 2024.²⁴ Management has attributed this decline to a combination of fierce price competition, persistent cost inflation, and the impact of lower average basket sizes, which increases the relative cost of logistics per order.²³

This margin compression, however, is not solely a result of external market pressures. It also reflects a deliberate strategic choice by management to invest through the downturn. Unlike competitors who reportedly downsized, AOJ made a conscious decision to retain and even expand its workforce to maintain operational capacity for the eventual market recovery.¹⁰ The company also continued to invest in its store network and in acquiring new competencies.¹⁶ These actions, while increasing operating costs and depressing margins in the short term, are part of a long-term strategy to be well-positioned when market conditions improve. This approach is consistent with the long-term perspective often associated with family-controlled businesses.

Return on Capital

AOJ’s returns on capital have mirrored the business cycle. Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) showed strong improvement during the upswing, growing from 11.5% in 2018 to an impressive 18.1% in 2021, indicating highly effective capital deployment during that period.¹¹ More recent trailing-twelve-month data shows a moderation in these returns, with Return on Equity (ROE) at 12.2% and Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) at 11.6%.¹² While these are still respectable figures, they are below the recent peaks and reflect the pressure on profitability. The five-year average earnings growth rate is negative at -2.1%, underscoring the cyclical nature of the industry and the impact of the recent downturn.¹²

Working Capital Management and Cash Flow

The company has a track record of efficient working capital management, particularly regarding inventory. Strategic investments in its online sales channels and warehouse automation have enabled AOJ to reduce its Days Sales of Inventory (DSI) from 62 to 57 days, freeing up capital.¹¹

Cash flow performance has been more volatile. A peer comparison noted that AOJ’s operating cash flow turned negative in 2023, which was a point of concern.¹³ However, this situation has since improved markedly. In the first half of 2025, cash flow from operations saw a significant positive swing, driven by higher earnings and favorable timing of working capital movements.²³

Financial Leverage

AOJ maintains a moderate level of financial leverage. As of June 2025, the company’s debt-to-equity ratio was reported at 69.0%.⁷ While this level is not excessive, particularly for a distribution business with significant fixed assets, it has been flagged as a potential risk factor, and the debt taken on to fund the recent wave of acquisitions will require careful management, especially if the anticipated earnings recovery is delayed.⁷

Growth Opportunities & Strategic Initiatives

Brødrene A & O Johansen’s growth strategy is a multi-faceted approach that combines organic market share gains, disciplined inorganic expansion, and continuous investment in innovation and operational efficiency. The overarching vision is to leverage these pillars to achieve a long-term EBITDA margin target of 10%.¹⁰

Organic Growth Opportunities

Organic growth is centered on deepening the company’s penetration in existing markets and expanding its share of customer spending.

• Market Share Gains: The primary organic objective is to continue leveraging the company’s digital and logistical advantages to take market share in its core Danish B2B market. The company’s ability to do so even during the recent downturn is a testament to the strength of its value proposition.¹⁰
• B2C Segment Expansion: The direct-to-consumer channel is a key pillar of the growth strategy. Through its portfolio of 20 specialized webshops, AOJ is targeting B2C sales to comprise more than 15% of total group revenue by 2025. This initiative diversifies the customer base and leverages the existing logistics and product infrastructure.¹⁰
• “One-Stop-Shop” and Cross-Selling: AOJ is actively working to broaden its product range to become a comprehensive “one-stop-shop” for its professional customers. The acquisition of EA Værktøj, a tool specialist, is a prime example of this strategy, enabling AOJ to increase its share of its customers’ total materials and tools budget through cross-selling.¹⁰

Inorganic Growth and Acquisition Strategy

Inorganic growth through mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is the central pillar for geographic expansion. The strategy is focused on building a significant presence in Sweden and Norway.

• Strategic Nordic Expansion: The year 2024 marked a significant acceleration of this strategy with three key acquisitions executed in rapid succession: Svenska VA-Grossisten in April, VVSKupp.no in June, and Workwear Group in June.¹ These were not random acquisitions but highly strategic moves. The purchase of Svenska VA-Grossisten provided a crucial entry into the large Stockholm market, while VVSKupp.no gave AOJ immediate leadership in the Norwegian online plumbing and bathroom segment.¹⁰
• Disciplined M&A Framework: Management adheres to a disciplined financial framework for its M&A activities, requiring a projected 15% return on investment within a three-year timeframe.¹⁰ This approach suggests a focus on value-accretive deals and helps mitigate the risk of overpaying for growth.

The company’s acquisition strategy can be characterized as a “hub-and-spoke” model designed to de-risk and accelerate its Nordic expansion. Rather than pursuing a costly and slow greenfield expansion, AOJ acquires a strategic “beachhead” asset in each target market. These acquisitions provide an immediate operational platform—including a warehouse, an established customer base, and local market expertise. AOJ then uses these hubs to consolidate its smaller, existing operations and as a base for further organic expansion, such as opening new physical stores. This buy-and-build approach is a more capital-efficient and lower-risk method for entering new geographic markets.¹⁰

Innovation, R&D, and Efficiency Initiatives

Continuous investment in technology and operational efficiency is foundational to AOJ’s competitive advantage.

• Warehouse Automation: A key ongoing strategic project is the automation of the company’s central warehouse. This significant capital investment is designed to increase storage capacity, improve order-picking efficiency, reduce unit costs, and enable faster and more frequent deliveries, particularly in the crucial Greater Copenhagen area.¹¹
• Digital Transformation: The company continues to invest in its digital backbone. This includes its Product Information Management (PIM) system, which is essential for managing the complexity of its 800,000-SKU product catalog and improving the speed and quality of product data across its e-commerce channels.⁹

Management’s Strategic Vision and Execution Track Record

The management team, which is noted for its experience and stability with a CEO tenure of over 46 years, has articulated a clear long-term vision.³⁴ The goal is to transform AOJ into a leading Nordic player by leveraging scale, digital leadership, and strategic acquisitions to drive profitability towards a 10% EBITDA margin.¹⁰ The consistent execution of its digital strategy (e.g., the successful rollout of AO365) and its recent disciplined yet decisive M&A activity demonstrate a strong track record of translating vision into action.

Capital Allocation & Shareholder Returns

Brødrene A & O Johansen’s capital allocation strategy reflects the priorities of a mature, profitable, and family-controlled business. The approach is balanced, aiming to fund future growth through both internal investment and strategic acquisitions while simultaneously providing consistent and meaningful returns to shareholders.

Management’s Capital Allocation Strategy and Priorities

Analysis of management’s actions and financial reports reveals a clear hierarchy of capital allocation priorities:

1. Reinvestment in Organic Growth and Efficiency: The first call on capital is for internal projects that strengthen the company’s competitive moat. This includes ongoing capital expenditures for the automation of the central warehouse and continuous investment in the company’s digital platforms, which are seen as critical drivers of efficiency and customer loyalty.¹¹
2. Funding Strategic M&A: The second priority is the use of capital to fund a disciplined M&A strategy focused on geographic expansion. The acquisitions made in 2024 are a clear testament to this priority.¹
3. Shareholder Returns via Dividends: After funding internal and external growth initiatives, the company has a strong commitment to returning a significant portion of its remaining profits to shareholders in the form of cash dividends.²⁴

Dividend Policy and Shareholder Returns

AOJ has a well-established and consistent dividend policy, which is a cornerstone of its shareholder return proposition. The company has a history of paying dividends for at least eight consecutive years, signaling a reliable return of capital to its owners.³⁵

The company’s policy is to pay out a substantial portion of its earnings. For both the 2023 and 2024 fiscal years, the proposed dividend was equivalent to approximately 50-51% of the year’s profit after tax.²⁴

• 2023 Dividend: A dividend of DKK 3.75 per share was paid.²⁴
• 2024 Dividend: A dividend of DKK 3.00 per share was paid.³²

This consistent payout provides investors with a tangible return and a dividend yield that has historically been around 3%.⁶

The company’s commitment to a stable and high dividend payout ratio can be viewed as more than just a method of returning cash. It functions as an effective governance mechanism that enforces capital discipline. By earmarking approximately half of the profits for dividends, management is compelled to be highly selective and rigorous in evaluating how the remaining capital is deployed. This structure reinforces the need for a disciplined M&A framework, such as the stated 15% ROI hurdle, and ensures that internal projects are focused on generating high returns.¹⁰ This commitment reduces the risk of management engaging in “empire-building” or pursuing growth for its own sake, thereby aligning management’s actions more closely with long-term shareholder value creation.

Share Buyback Programs

The available information indicates that share buybacks are not a significant or regular component of AOJ’s capital allocation strategy. The company’s clear preference is to use dividends as the primary vehicle for returning capital to shareholders.

Reinvestment Rates and Returns on Incremental Capital

The company’s ability to generate value from its reinvested capital has been strong, particularly during the market upswing from 2018 to 2021, when ROIC increased significantly.¹¹ The current period represents a crucial test for management’s capital allocation skill. The substantial investments being made in acquisitions and warehouse automation will be judged on their ability to restore margins and drive a recovery in ROIC to the levels seen in previous cycles. The success of these initiatives will be the primary determinant of future value creation for shareholders.

Recent Developments & Challenges (2023-2025)

The period from 2023 through the first half of 2025 has been a dynamic and challenging one for Brødrene A & O Johansen, marked by significant strategic actions against a backdrop of difficult market conditions.

Major Changes and Corporate Actions

This period has been defined by a decisive acceleration of the company’s M&A strategy, transforming its geographic footprint.

• 2024 Acquisition Spree: In a clear strategic push into the broader Nordic market, AOJ completed three key acquisitions in quick succession during 2024. These included Svenska VA-Grossisten in Sweden (April), the online retailer VVSKupp.no in Norway (June), and the workwear specialist Workwear Group in Denmark (June).¹
• Major B2C Consolidation: In April 2025, the company announced a significant strategic move in its home market with the acquisition of the leading Danish e-commerce domain VVS-eksperten.dk, with the transaction set to be effective from January 1, 2026.¹ This acquisition represents a major step to consolidate its leadership position in the Danish B2C online market.

Industry Headwinds and Macroeconomic Pressures

The company has been navigating significant macroeconomic headwinds that have impacted the entire construction sector.

• Market Downturn: A notable market slowdown began in the second half of 2023 and persisted into the early part of 2024. This downturn was primarily driven by the impact of high inflation and rising interest rates, which dampened construction activity and consumer confidence.²⁴
• Heat Pump Market Volatility: A specific headwind in 2023 was the unexpected negative performance of the heat pump market, which had previously been a strong source of growth. This volatility highlights the company’s exposure to shifts in government subsidies and specific product cycles.²⁴

Operational Issues and Margin Pressures

The most pressing operational challenge for AOJ during this period has been the severe and persistent pressure on profitability.

• Intense Price Competition: Management has repeatedly characterized the competitive environment as “fierce,” with intense price-based competition, particularly in project sales, leading to significant margin erosion.¹⁴
• Cost Pressures: The company has also faced margin pressure from cost inflation and the operational inefficiency of lower average basket sizes, which increases the relative cost of logistics and labor per order.²³
• Increased Credit Risk: Reflecting the tougher economic climate, management has also flagged an increase in customer credit risk. This has been exacerbated by credit insurers reducing their coverage lines, which in turn increases AOJ’s direct financial exposure to potential customer defaults.²³

Market Disruption and Management Outlook

Despite the challenges, recent performance and management commentary suggest a more optimistic outlook.

• 2025 Guidance Update: Following a strong first half of 2025, management has narrowed its full-year guidance towards the upper end of the previously stated range. This signals growing confidence in the business’s trajectory for the remainder of the year.¹⁴
• Current 2025 Guidance: The updated guidance projects full-year revenue in the range of DKK 5,950–6,100 million, EBITDA between DKK 420–450 million, and EBT in the range of DKK 245–275 million.¹⁴
• Top-Line Momentum: The company’s top-line performance has rebounded strongly in 2025. Reported revenue growth was 15.0% in the second quarter, driven by a combination of continued organic growth and the contribution from the newly acquired businesses.¹⁴ This suggests that the company’s strategy of gaining market share and expanding its footprint is yielding results.

Risk Assessment

A comprehensive assessment of Brødrene A & O Johansen must consider a range of risks inherent to its business model, industry, and strategic direction. These risks could potentially impair the company’s ability to create long-term value.

Business and Operational Risks

• Sustained Margin Pressure: The most significant near-term risk is the potential for the current intense price competition to become a structural, long-term feature of the market. If “fierce” competition prevents AOJ from recovering its gross and operating margins towards historical levels and its stated 10% EBITDA target, the returns on its recent significant investments in acquisitions and automation could be permanently impaired.¹⁰
• Acquisition Integration Risk: The company executed three strategic acquisitions in a very short period in 2024 and has another large deal pending with VVS-eksperten.dk. There is a considerable risk associated with successfully integrating the operations, IT systems, and cultures of these different businesses. A failure to realize the anticipated synergies or a disruption to existing operations during the integration process could negatively impact financial performance.
• Supply Chain Disruption: As a distributor, AOJ’s business model is fundamentally dependent on the reliability of its suppliers. Any significant disruptions—whether due to geopolitical events, manufacturing issues, or logistical bottlenecks—could impact product availability, increase costs, and damage customer relationships.

Financial Risks

• Economic Cyclicality: Despite its significant exposure to the more stable RMI market, AOJ’s business remains inherently tied to the health of the broader construction and renovation sectors. These markets are cyclical and sensitive to macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation, and consumer and business confidence. A prolonged economic downturn in the Nordic region would inevitably impact the company’s revenue and profitability.²⁴
• Customer Credit Risk: In a challenging economic environment, the financial stability of AOJ’s large base of small- and medium-sized professional customers can deteriorate. Management has already identified this as a rising concern, with credit insurers tightening their terms. An increase in customer bankruptcies could lead to higher-than-expected bad debt expenses, directly impacting the bottom line.²³
• Financial Leverage: The company has taken on additional debt to finance its recent acquisition strategy. While the current leverage appears manageable, it increases the company’s financial risk. If the anticipated earnings recovery from these acquisitions fails to materialize or is significantly delayed, the debt service burden could become a constraint on financial flexibility.⁷

Strategic and Governance Risks

• Execution Risk: AOJ is concurrently pursuing several major strategic initiatives: a multi-country Nordic expansion, a significant build-out of its B2C business, and a complex warehouse automation project. Executing effectively on all these fronts simultaneously is a significant challenge. A misstep or delay in any one of these core projects could hinder the achievement of the company’s long-term strategic and financial goals.
• Digital Disruption: While AOJ is currently a digital leader in its industry, the technology landscape is constantly evolving. There is a risk that a new technology or a more agile, digitally-native competitor could emerge and disrupt AOJ’s existing digital advantage, eroding its competitive moat.
• Management and Governance: The company benefits from a highly experienced and stable management team. However, the CEO’s long tenure (86 years old) introduces key-person and succession risk that investors must consider.³⁴

ESG-Related Business Risks

• Green Transition Product Risk: The transition to a green economy, while a major opportunity, also carries inherent risks. The demand for green technologies like heat pumps can be volatile and highly dependent on shifting government regulations and subsidies. A misjudgment of future demand or a rapid technological shift could leave the company with obsolete inventory, leading to significant write-downs.

Valuation Analysis

The valuation of Brødrene A & O Johansen presents a classic case of weighing near-term cyclical headwinds against long-term strategic potential. The company’s current valuation multiples reflect the significant compression in earnings experienced since the peak in 2022. The central question is whether this repricing fully accounts for the risks or undervalues the potential for a future recovery driven by its strategic initiatives. This analysis examines the valuation from multiple perspectives but, as per the user’s request, does not provide a specific price target or investment recommendation.

Historical Valuation Context

An analysis of AOJ’s historical valuation ranges is essential to understand how the market has priced the company through different phases of the business cycle. In periods of strong growth and high profitability, such as 2021-2022, the company would have commanded higher multiples than it does today. The current multiples should be compared against 5- and 10-year historical averages to gauge the extent of the current discount.

Peer Group Valuation Benchmarking

Comparing AOJ to its closest peers provides crucial market context. The most relevant publicly traded peer is Solar Group A/S. Other large competitors like STARK Group and Ahlsell are privately owned, limiting direct comparison, but smaller listed players in the Nordic region can provide additional data points.

Company	Ticker	Market Cap (DKKb)	EV/Sales (LTM)	EV/EBITDA (LTM)	P/E (LTM)	Dividend Yield (%)
Brødrene A&O Johansen	AOJ-B.CO	2.15	0.4x	6.5x	12.2x	3.1%
Solar Group	SOLAR B.CO	5.00	0.4x	6.8x	9.5x	2.5%
Byggma ASA	BYG.OL	1.10	0.5x	6.9x	10.5x	6.8%

Note: Market data as of late August 2025. Market Cap and EV are approximations. LTM = Last Twelve Months. Peer data is for illustrative purposes.

The data suggests that AOJ trades at a slight discount to Solar on an EV/EBITDA basis but at a premium on a P/E basis. Its dividend yield is attractive and in line with the sector. The valuation appears broadly in line with regional peers, none of which are trading at demanding multiples, reflecting the challenging industry environment.

Analysis of Key Valuation Metrics

• Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: The current trailing P/E ratio is approximately 12.2x.⁶ This multiple is based on earnings that are significantly depressed from their 2022 peak. If one were to assume a “normalized” earnings level closer to the 2022-2023 average, the implied P/E ratio would be considerably lower.
• EV/EBITDA: This multiple is useful for comparing companies with different capital structures. AOJ’s EV/EBITDA multiple is also reflective of the cyclical downturn in profitability.
• Dividend Yield: With a consistent dividend policy and a current yield of approximately 3.1% ⁶, the stock offers a tangible cash return. This yield can provide a degree of valuation support and appeals to income-focused investors, potentially placing a floor under the stock price.
• Free Cash Flow (FCF) Yield: The analysis of FCF is critical. The company experienced negative operating cash flow in 2023, which is a significant concern for valuation.¹³ However, cash flow has shown strong recovery in the first half of 2025.²³ A sustained return to strong, positive free cash flow would be a major catalyst for a re-rating of the stock.

Valuation Relative to Growth Prospects and Risks

The assessment of whether the current valuation is attractive depends on an investor’s view of the company’s future prospects versus its inherent risks.

• The Bear Case: An investor with a pessimistic outlook would argue that the current valuation is fair, or even rich. This view would be based on the assumption that the intense price competition and margin pressure are structural rather than cyclical. In this scenario, AOJ will struggle to return to its historical profitability levels, and the returns on its recent acquisitions will be disappointing. The current earnings are not a cyclical trough but represent a “new normal” for the industry.
• The Bull Case: An investor with an optimistic outlook would argue that the market is excessively focused on the short-term margin compression and is undervaluing the long-term earnings power of the company’s strategic initiatives. This view would contend that the current earnings are cyclically depressed. As the market recovers and the benefits of warehouse automation and acquisition synergies are realized, earnings have the potential to rebound significantly. The market is effectively getting the option on the successful execution of the Nordic expansion strategy for free. The resilience of the RMI-focused business model and the company’s strong market position provide a solid foundation for this recovery.

In conclusion, the valuation of Brødrene A & O Johansen is not demanding on headline multiples. However, these multiples are based on cyclically depressed earnings. The investment question boils down to whether the company can successfully execute its strategy to restore profitability to historical levels on what will be a significantly larger post-acquisition revenue base.

Key Questions to Address

What are the primary drivers of AOJ’s business performance?

The primary drivers of Brødrene A & O Johansen’s business performance are a combination of macroeconomic factors and company-specific strategic execution. Firstly, performance is fundamentally tied to the health of the Danish renovation, maintenance, and improvement (RMI) market, which constitutes approximately 70% of its sales and provides a relatively stable base of demand.¹⁰ Secondly, the company’s ability to defend and expand its gross margins is critical; this is driven by its capacity to leverage its digital and logistical value-added services to command a degree of pricing power in a fiercely competitive market. Thirdly, future growth is highly dependent on the successful execution of its dual-pronged expansion strategy: growing its B2C online segment and integrating its recent acquisitions to build a profitable pan-Nordic platform.

How resilient is the business model during economic downturns?

The business model demonstrates moderate resilience. The significant exposure to the less cyclical RMI market provides a defensive buffer compared to businesses focused purely on new construction.¹⁰ However, the company is not immune to economic downturns, as evidenced by the revenue decline and significant margin compression experienced in 2023.²⁴ The company’s strategic decision to retain its workforce during the recent slowdown, while detrimental to short-term profitability, was a conscious investment in long-term operational resilience, ensuring it has the capacity to respond quickly when the market recovers.¹⁰ This suggests a management focus on through-cycle performance rather than optimizing for any single point in the cycle.

What is the quality and sustainability of the company’s competitive advantages?

The company’s competitive advantages are of high quality and appear sustainable. The moats derived from scale in purchasing and logistics are durable but can be matched by other large competitors. The most distinct and sustainable advantage is the company’s deep-rooted leadership in digitalization. Innovations like the AO365 24/7 store access system create significant customer stickiness and high switching costs for its core professional client base.³ This technological edge, combined with its dense physical network, creates a powerful, integrated omnichannel platform that is difficult and expensive for competitors to replicate, providing a durable competitive edge.

How effective has management been in capital allocation and strategic execution?

Management has demonstrated a clear, consistent, and disciplined approach to capital allocation and strategy. The long-term strategic vision is coherent, focusing on reinforcing the core Danish business while expanding into adjacent Nordic markets. The execution has been effective, as shown by the successful development of its digital platforms and the recent decisive M&A activity. The capital allocation framework is balanced between reinvestment for growth (both organic and inorganic) and providing shareholder returns. The consistent dividend payout of ~50% of net profit and the stated 15% ROI hurdle for acquisitions are strong indicators of a disciplined, value-oriented mindset that aligns with long-term shareholder interests.¹⁰

What are the most significant risks that could impair long-term value creation?

The most significant risk that could impair long-term value creation is a “lower-for-longer” scenario where the intense price competition currently pressuring the industry becomes a permanent structural feature. If AOJ is unable to restore its operating margins to historical levels, the financial rationale for its expansionary investments would be undermined, and the returns on invested capital would be permanently impaired. This risk is compounded by the execution risk of integrating multiple large acquisitions simultaneously and the macroeconomic risk of a prolonged period of weakness in the Nordic construction markets.

How attractive is the current valuation given the company’s prospects and risks?

The current valuation appears to reflect the market’s focus on the cyclical trough in earnings and the significant margin compression of the past two years. For an investor who believes that the current industry pressures are cyclical and that management can successfully execute its strategy, the valuation may appear attractive. It seems to offer the potential for significant earnings leverage in a market recovery, with little value currently ascribed to the successful integration and growth of the new Nordic platform. Conversely, for an investor who believes the margin pressures are structural and permanent, the current valuation would be seen as fair or even optimistic, given the heightened execution risks and the challenging industry backdrop.

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